Ceylon Data Strategy
SLEPISri Lanka External Pressure Index
Sri Lanka External Pressure Index
0.33
Calm

External conditions are broadly neutral, with conditions deteriorating this month — slightly thin usable reserves, offset by manageable rollover needs.

▲ 0.48 vs previous monthLatest: Apr 2026
Sri Lanka
SLEPIThe pressure on the Sri Lankan economy in real-time
-1.001.02.0Feb 21Jan 22Jan 23Dec 23Nov 24Oct 25Feb 26
Hover to scrub historyLatest -0.33
AcuteElevatedNeutralSupportive2022 crisis peak
USD / LKR
316.45▲ 4.54
Spot rate — higher = weaker Rupee
Usable cover
0.30▼ 0.25
Months of imports after short-term drains
ST debt / reserves
0.82
Short-term external debt / GOR
Balance signal
-532▼ 576.98
USD mn — official current account
Services balance
229▲ 2.62
USD mn — explanatory overlay
Index components

The SLEPI score is the equal-weighted average of four standardised component scores (z-scores). Positive values → pressure. Negative values → support. Hover a row to highlight it in the 24-month chart below.

ComponentLatest reading24-month trajectoryZ-score / MoM
Adjusted usable reservesiGross official reserves less reserve-template short-term drains and FX forward/swap short positions, divided by trailing imports.
0.30 momonths after short-term drains
+0.40▲ 0.32
FX market pressureiComposite of USD/LKR depreciation, NEER depreciation and reserve-change pressure. Positive values indicate pressure.
1.4%USD/LKR MoM; NEER + reserves in z
+0.43▲ 0.32
External financingiQuarterly CBSL external debt is step-held monthly and combined with annual debt-service pressure as a rollover signal.
0.82short-term external debt / GOR
-0.64
External balanceiUses official current account when available, otherwise a bias-adjusted ladder from services/remittances, tourism/remittances, or trade balance.
21.7%official current account
+1.12▲ 1.27
24-month component history

Each line shows a component's standardised score over time. Use the toggles to isolate individual drivers. Coloured bands mark the same pressure zones as the index chart above; dashed vertical lines mark regime transitions.

AcuteElevatedNeutralSupportiveStandardised score (z)-2-10neutral line+1+2Mar 24Nov 24Jul 25Feb 26-0.00Usable reserves-0.28FX pressure-0.67Rollover-0.38Ext. balance
Advanced statsValidation, freshness, and pipeline status
Validation

Backtest

AUC — top 15% stress0.6260.5001.0003-month correlation0.180-1.0001.000
Crisis peak
Mar 2022
Proxy overlap
40 months
Freshness

Data availability

Data sourceObject storagehttps://pub-501dbf8d93d44b3daaabdd91e657d8ac.r2.dev/slepi/snapshot.json
Latest complete indexApr 2026
FXJun 2026
Balance pressureApr 2026
Official current accountApr 2026
Usable reservesApr 2026
External debtDec 2025
M2b / NFAApr 2026
Trade balanceApr 2026

Next window (May 2026) pending: adjusted_usable_reserve_adequacy, fx_market_pressure, external_balance.

Pipeline last checked CBSL on Jun 23, 2026, 12:30 PM.