{"name":"SLEPI - Sri Lanka External Pressure Index","description":"A monthly Sri Lanka External Pressure Index tracking reserve adequacy, FX market pressure, external financing pressure, and external-balance pressure.","url":"https://charts.ceylondatastrategy.com","publisher":{"name":"Ceylon Data Strategy","url":"https://ceylondatastrategy.com"},"recommended_headline":"slepi_adjusted","headline_definition":"Equal-weighted CBSL-compatible core: adjusted usable reserve adequacy, FX market pressure, external debt-service/rollover pressure, and a staged external-balance/current-account pressure block.","methodology":{"components":["Adjusted usable reserve adequacy: gross official reserves less reserve-template short-term drains and FX forward/swap short positions, scaled by trailing imports.","FX market pressure: USD/LKR depreciation, NEER depreciation, and reserve-loss pressure.","External financing pressure: short-term external debt relative to reserves plus debt-service rollover context.","External balance pressure: official monthly current account over imports when available; otherwise a bias-adjusted ladder using trade, services, tourism, and remittances."],"aggregation":["Each component is converted to a real-time z-score.","The headline SLEPI score is the equal-weighted average of the four component z-scores when all headline blocks are available."]},"source_snapshot_headline_definition":"Equal-weighted CBSL-compatible core: adjusted usable reserve adequacy, FX market pressure, external debt-service/rollover pressure, and a staged external-balance/current-account pressure block.","latest":{"date":"2026-04-01","slepi_adjusted":0.32528183352727436,"interpretation_basis":"positive values indicate external pressure; negative values indicate support","adjusted_usable_reserve_cover_months":0.2973088133948591,"fx_market_pressure_z":0.43157891162632406,"external_financing_pressure_z":-0.6412402233631862,"external_balance_pressure_z":1.1157698033627355,"external_balance_source":"official_current_account","current_account_filled_usd_m":-532.4080926262859,"usd_lkr":316.4514888888889},"previous":{"date":"2026-03-01","slepi_adjusted":-0.1542153132939706,"interpretation_basis":"positive values indicate external pressure; negative values indicate support","adjusted_usable_reserve_cover_months":0.5462984370419903,"fx_market_pressure_z":0.114669729313991,"external_financing_pressure_z":-0.6581233649802876,"external_balance_pressure_z":-0.14960384987938677,"external_balance_source":"official_current_account","current_account_filled_usd_m":44.57609831568152,"usd_lkr":311.9129380952381},"delta":0.47949714682124495,"freshness":{"artifact_built_at":"2026-06-23T07:00:10.724204+00:00","balance_pressure_stage_counts":{"missing":137,"official_current_account":40,"trade_balance_fast_signal":24,"trade_tourism_remittances_nowcast":167},"blocking_months_after_latest_complete":[{"date":"2026-05-01","missing_requirements":["adjusted_usable_reserve_adequacy","fx_market_pressure","external_balance"]},{"date":"2026-06-01","missing_requirements":["adjusted_usable_reserve_adequacy","fx_market_pressure","external_balance"]}],"latest_available_months":{"adjusted_usable_reserves":"2026-04-01","balance_pressure":"2026-04-01","buffer_inflows":"2026-03-01","current_account":"2026-04-01","debt_service":"2024-01-01","external_debt":"2025-12-01","external_financing":"2026-06-01","fx_market_pressure":"2026-06-01","gross_reserves":"2026-04-01","imports":"2026-04-01","m2b_nfa":"2026-04-01","neer":"2026-04-01","remittances":"2026-04-01","services_balance":"2026-04-01","tourism":"2026-03-01","trade_balance":"2026-04-01"},"latest_complete_month":{"date":"2026-04-01","slepi_adjusted":0.32528183352727436},"latest_partial_month":"2026-06-01","pipeline_checked_at":"2026-06-23T07:00:10.724204+00:00","source_last_modified":{"current_account":"Fri, 29 May 2026 06:59:08 GMT","exports":"Fri, 29 May 2026 13:35:19 GMT","external_debt_quarterly":"Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:32:04 GMT","external_debt_service_annual":"Fri, 09 Jan 2026 09:30:38 GMT","imports":"Fri, 29 May 2026 13:35:50 GMT","monetary_survey_monthly":"Tue, 09 Jun 2026 08:06:04 GMT","neer_reer":"Tue, 02 Jun 2026 05:44:54 GMT","remittances":"Mon, 11 May 2026 04:07:06 GMT","reserve_history":"Fri, 29 May 2026 13:50:19 GMT","reserve_latest":"Fri, 29 May 2026 13:49:53 GMT","services":"Fri, 29 May 2026 07:00:42 GMT","tourism":"Thu, 30 Apr 2026 17:22:48 GMT"}},"metrics":{"data_sufficiency":{"annual_debt_service_non_null_months":162,"balance_pressure_non_null_months":231,"balance_pressure_stage_counts":{"missing":137,"official_current_account":40,"trade_balance_fast_signal":24,"trade_tourism_remittances_nowcast":167},"external_debt_quarterly_non_null_months":163,"long_backtest_end":"2026-06-01","long_backtest_start":"1-10-01","monetary_survey_non_null_months":365,"neer_non_null_months":160,"official_current_account_non_null_months":40,"official_reserve_non_null_months":150,"services_balance_non_null_months":40},"proxy_fit":{"method":"official-current-account source ladder with rolling median bias adjustment for provisional stages","official_overlap_end":"2026-04-01","official_overlap_start":"2023-01-01","overlap_months":40,"proxy_fits":{"goods_services_remittances_nowcast":{"correlation":0.9204580825885174,"median_official_minus_proxy":0.11642074435706504,"overlap_end":"2026-04-01","overlap_months":40,"overlap_start":"2023-01-01"},"trade_balance_fast_signal":{"correlation":0.8004948411072785,"median_official_minus_proxy":-0.42395839906777205,"overlap_end":"2026-04-01","overlap_months":40,"overlap_start":"2023-01-01"},"trade_tourism_remittances_nowcast":{"correlation":0.8810860267510398,"median_official_minus_proxy":0.08821616379143302,"overlap_end":"2026-03-01","overlap_months":39,"overlap_start":"2023-01-01"}},"stage_counts":{"missing":137,"official_current_account":40,"trade_balance_fast_signal":24,"trade_tourism_remittances_nowcast":167}},"sample_end":"2026-03-01","sample_start":"2014-01-01","slepi_adjusted":{"auc_for_top_15pct_future_stress_event":0.6263099834528406,"available_months":135,"correlation_with_future_external_stress_3m":0.1795266998534748,"crisis_window_peak_date":"2022-03-01","crisis_window_peak_value":1.7560112247595119},"slepi_user_spec":{"auc_for_top_15pct_future_stress_event":0.6194584231967409,"available_months":146,"correlation_with_future_external_stress_3m":0.26998795455269176,"crisis_window_peak_date":"2022-04-01","crisis_window_peak_value":2.414908845846039},"stress_event_quantile":0.85,"stress_event_threshold":0.5687275286292882},"data_source":{"mode":"object-storage","url":"https://pub-501dbf8d93d44b3daaabdd91e657d8ac.r2.dev/slepi/snapshot.json"},"machine_readable":{"llms_txt":"https://charts.ceylondatastrategy.com/llms.txt","summary_json":"https://charts.ceylondatastrategy.com/summary.json"}}